Evidence Ledger
Proof travels with every fact.
Every fact carries where it came from, when it was established and how strongly it is supported. Nothing is overwritten: a correction is added, and the original stays on record.
What was seen at the source is never confused with what was inferred.
Rules
How the ledger stays honest.
Built into the system itself, not promised in a policy.
- Nothing is overwritten.A correction is added beside the original, and the original stays on record.
- Graded on entry.Every fact is graded by how strongly it is supported, and the grade travels with it.
- Inferred stays inferred.What a model concludes is labelled as inferred, never presented as seen.
- Confirmed before reported.A company is reported as changed only once the evidence confirms it.
- Unknown is not zero.A missing value stays missing. It is never filled in to make a total look complete.
- Every number has a denominator.A share is always shown with what it is a share of.
- Held in the EU.The ledger runs on infrastructure we control in the EU.
- Within the GDPR.Personal data is kept only as the GDPR allows, and erased when it requires.
Signals
A signal, not noise.
Market data is thin and noisy. A reading never claims more than the data supports.
- Small samples stay small.A rate drawn from a handful of cases is shown with its uncertainty, never as a firm figure.
- Few false alarms.When many markets are compared at once, results that could be chance are held back.
- Thin markets are not overrated.A small market cannot top a ranking on luck.
- Calls are scored.We commit to a call before the outcome is known, and score it against what happened.
Ask for the evidence behind any line.
Every briefing we give can be traced back to its sources, dates and grades.